Imagine a future where the complexities of global events, from military skirmishes to disease outbreaks, aren’t just reacted to, but actively predicted and optimized before they even fully unfold. Sound like science fiction? Well, the U.S. military, through its cutting-edge Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), is pushing hard to make it a reality. They’re calling their latest ambitious undertaking the ‘DARPAVERSE’.
This isn’t just about faster simulations; it’s about fundamentally changing how we understand and interact with complex systems, particularly those involving human behavior. And if the mythological undertones of DARPA’s program names are anything to go by, we might be looking at a future that, for better or worse, could redefine conflict and cooperation as we know it.
Unpacking the DARPAVERSE: A New Era of Predictive Warfare?
On October 10, 2025, DARPA launched the DARPAVERSE competition as a “Special Topic Area (STA)” under its existing ERIS program. The core vision for DARPAVERSE is nothing short of revolutionary: “A unified platform enabling accelerated capability development, deployment, and optimal warfighter courses of action.”
Think about that for a moment. This isn’t merely an upgrade; it’s an attempt to create a collaborative environment where warfighters, analysts, and program managers can interact with incredibly complex modeling systems. The goal is to develop and deploy models of multi-domain problems iteratively, constantly refining assumptions and improving solution quality. The aim is to approach a “Pareto-frontier of dominating solutions” — essentially, the best possible outcomes with minimal downsides.
What truly sets DARPAVERSE apart is its audacious speed requirement. The program seeks to develop multi-domain models of concepts and scenarios in less than a day. That’s a mind-boggling leap from current capabilities, promising near real-time strategic insights.
Beyond the Battlefield: The Unspoken Targets
While the DARPAVERSE platform is explicitly about planning military operations, this particular STA keeps the “intended targets” notably broad. If we consider the full scope of military intelligence, these targets could encompass a wide array of entities: foreign governments, criminal organizations, critical infrastructure, and yes, even civilian populations.
DARPAVERSE challenges the prevailing assumption that complex multi-domain models must come from “stove-piped and monolithic simulation environments.” These older systems often result in models that are difficult to maintain, aren’t easily broken down into parts, or can’t be combined with other models. DARPA’s plan is to disrupt this by producing an open environment that uses automated reduced order model generation, allowing existing models to be accelerated, new models to be derived from data, and representations that can be decomposed and recomposed to solve new problems as they arise. This adaptability is key.
The program focuses on three highly technical areas: Adaptive Software Repository, Adaptive Co-Design and Orchestration, and Adaptive Definition and Vision. These pillars are designed to ensure the platform is robust, flexible, and capable of handling unforeseen variables.
ERIS and the Echoes of Discord: A Deeper Dive into DARPA’s Ambitions
The DARPAVERSE STA is an add-on to the DARPA ERIS program, and it’s here that the mythological parallels begin to truly resonate. In Greek mythology, Eris is the goddess of discord and strife. For DARPA, however, ERIS stands for “Expedited Research Innovation System” (previously “Expedited Research Implementation Series”).
The ERIS Marketplace is a digital hub designed to accelerate the acquisition of national security innovations. It serves as a centralized location for DARPA to scout disruptive technologies, while simultaneously providing a platform for industry, academia, and individual developers to promote their research to the government. It’s a fast lane for cutting-edge solutions.
The topic areas within ERIS are incredibly diverse, reflecting a broad spectrum of national security concerns. They include everything from detecting elusive objects across all domains and overcoming limitations of current sensing systems, to enhancing the resilience of strategic systems and developing advanced defenses against chemical and biological threats. There’s even a strong focus on human health and performance optimization, biotechnologies for resource utilization, and the convergence of AI/ML with chemistry and biology.
Perhaps most intriguingly, ERIS also seeks “groundbreaking methods and metrology for complex, emergent, and adaptive systems, going beyond the limitations of current reductive scientific methods.” This ambition to model systems that are inherently unpredictable speaks volumes about DARPA’s long-term vision. It’s not just about what we can see, but what we can anticipate from the unseen variables in complex interactions.
Beyond the Battlefield: DARPA’s Broader Pursuit of Human Behavior Modeling
The DARPAVERSE and ERIS programs aren’t isolated initiatives. They fit into a larger pattern of DARPA research that increasingly focuses on simulating, modeling, predicting, and even influencing human behavior across various domains. It’s a fascinating, and at times unsettling, progression.
Consider the “Advanced Disease Outbreak Simulation Capabilities” request for information (RFI) from May 2025. Here, DARPA explicitly stated its commitment to “optimize response strategies and inform the next generation of (bio)technology innovations to protect the population from biological threats.” They’re not just tracking diseases; they’re modeling interventions like mass vaccinations, lockdowns, and communication strategies. This means understanding and predicting how human populations react and behave under pressure.
Even earlier, in April 2025, DARPA issued an advanced research concept (ARC) called “Methodological Advancements for Generalizable Insights into Complex Systems (MAGICS).” This program explicitly seeks “paradigm-shifting approaches for modeling complex, dynamic systems for predicting collective human behavior.” What’s striking is the lack of “adversaries” in the description. Instead, it focuses on “modeling human systems” and forecasting “complex social phenomena” derived from “sociotechnical data sets.” This implies a much broader application than traditional military targets.
Kallisti: The Apple of Discord for the Digital Age?
The most direct mythological echo comes from DARPA’s “Theory of Mind” program, later named “Kallisti.” Launched in December 2024, Kallisti aims to develop “new capabilities to enable national security decisionmakers to optimize strategies for deterring or incentivizing actions by adversaries.” It seeks to combine algorithms with human expertise to explore national security scenarios with far greater breadth and efficiency than currently possible, providing more options for incentive frameworks while preventing “unwanted escalation.”
The name “Kallisti” itself is a profound choice. In Greek mythology, Eris — our goddess of discord from the ERIS program — was furious for not being invited to a wedding. She inscribed “Kallisti” (“to the fairest”) on a golden apple and tossed it into the banquet. This “Apple of Discord” led to the “Judgement of Paris,” where three goddesses vied for the title, eventually leading to Paris abducting Helen of Troy, and ultimately, the Trojan War. Eris delighted in the chaos she unleashed.
The irony here is palpable. Mythological Kallisti sowed discord and triggered war, while DARPA’s Kallisti aims to prevent “unwanted escalation.” But in the pursuit of deeply understanding and potentially influencing human behavior, are we, as Tim Hinchliffe asks, seeing the makings of another “Trojan Horse scenario”?
What Will the DARPAVERSE Bring?
From ERIS and DARPAVERSE, to MAGICS and Kallisti, the thematic threads converge. DARPA is systematically investing in the capability to simulate, model, predict, and manipulate human behavior across an unprecedented range of scenarios. Whether it’s optimizing military operations, managing global health crises, or understanding complex social dynamics, the agency is building the tools to anticipate and shape our future.
DARPA once brought us ARPANET, the precursor to the Internet, fundamentally changing how humanity communicates. As we stand at the precipice of the DARPAVERSE, a platform designed to master the complexities of human interaction and predict outcomes with startling speed, we must ponder its implications. Will it usher in an era of unprecedented peace and stability, or will it, like its mythological namesake, sow seeds of an unforeseen discord?
Tim Hinchliffe, Editor, The Sociable
